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Un modelo matemático predice el número de infectados: 28.000 al término del fin de semana Informativos Telecinco 21/03/2020 16:04h.
Modelo matemático que predice el número de contagiados por Covid-19 en España, Cataluña y la UE. UPC
El modelo pronostica que el número de infectados por Covid-19 alcanzará los 28.431 este domingo Lleva dos semanas mostrando una gran eficacia realizando predicciones a corto plazo El número de infectados por el nuevo coronavirus en España alcanzará los 28.000 al término de este fin de semana , según un modelo matemático desarrollado por un equipo de investigadores españoles, impulsado por la Caixa, que hace predicciones para nuestro país, Cataluña y la Unión Europea.
El modelo ya ha probado ser eficaz , pues sus predicciones del 18 de marzo para España indicaban que para el día 19 habría unos 16.940 casos, con un intervalo de error de 15.467-18.413. Y los datos del día 19 del Ministerio de Sanidad indicaban que había 17.147 casos. Para este domingo día 22 los casos positivos en Covid-19 se elevarían a 28.431 , con un margen de error de 25.946-30.915.
El equipo de investigadores analiza desde hace semanas los datos de incidencia del Covid-19 en varios países, por lo que ha desarrollado un modelo matemático que permite cuantificar la situación en diversas zonas y países, así como una predicción de la evolución para los siguientes tres días . Durante las dos últimas semanas el modelo ha hecho proyecciones a corto plazo con un intervalo de confianza del 99% para diferentes países europeos con un acierto correctamente calibrado dando, por tanto, la predicción correcta en casi todos los casos.
Próximamente, una vez asegurado su correcto funcionamiento, se incorporarán predicciones a una semana vista. Los resultados de este modelo se incorporan cada día en el informe de situación enviado al grupo de trabajo europeo. El informe proporcionará una imagen completa de la situación pandémica del Covid-19 en los países europeos y posibilitará prever la situación para los próximos días. El modelo no pretende interpretar las causas de la evolución de los casos, pero sí evaluar la calidad de las medidas de control realizadas en cada país y realizar una predicción de tendencias a corto plazo.
Según destaca la Caixa, hay que tener en cuenta, sin embargo, que los efectos de las medidas que se implementan en un día determinado no se observarán hasta aproximadamente 5-7 días más tarde . Así, considera que, para el caso español, es importante tener la herramienta lista y funcionando para este fin de semana, cuando se cumplen 6 días de la declaración del Estado de Alarma.
Investigadores en Valencia sitúan el pico de la epidemia entre el 10 y el 15 de abril Por otra parte, investigadores del Instituto de Matemática Interdisciplinar de la Universidad Politécnica de Valencia (UPV) han creado una web en la que han creado un modelo matemático que predice la evolución del Covid-19 en España. Según esta herramienta, el pico de la epidemia en nuestro país se produciría entre los días 10 y 25 de abril .
Los responsables son optimistas porque su modelo arroja una leve mejoría desde la entrada en vigor del decreto de estado de alarma y prevén que los efectos del confinamiento empiecen a notarse en pocos días. El modelo de los matemáticos valencianos ofrece una predicción a tres días vista
Temas