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Expertos temen un "diciembre mortal" con 30.000 fallecimientos diarios en todo el mundo por covid19 Previsiones desalentadoras del Instituto de Métricas y Evaluaciones de Salud (IHME). EFE
Los muertos se pueden duplicar hasta alcanzar los 2,8 millones a finales de 2020 España acumulará 69.445 decesos en diciembre, en la previsión más probable Los muertos por coronavirus en todo el mundo se duplicarán hasta alcanzar los 2,8 millones para finales de año si se mantienen las circunstancias actuales, según un modelo de predicción del Instituto de Métricas y Evaluaciones de Salud (IHME) de la Universidad de Washington. "Estas primeras proyecciones mundiales por país ofrecen un pronóstico desalentador y una guía que se puede seguir para el alivio de la covid19", explicó el director del IHME, Christopher Murray, tras realizar un estudio en el que, por primera vez, se indican unas perspectivas globales de cara a final del año.
Además, los expertos advierten de un "diciembre mortal" a causa del coronavirus por lo que las muertes diarias en todo el mundo pudieran llegar hasta las 30.000 : "Nos enfrentamos a la perspectiva de un diciembre mortal, especialmente en Europa, Asia Central y Estados Unidos", explicaron y siempre teniendo en cuenta que "el uso de mascarillas, el distanciamiento social y limitar las reuniones es vital".
Por regiones, las proyecciones del IHME prevén para fin de año que las muertes por covid19 alcancen las 959.685 en toda América, 667.811 en Europa, 79.583 en África, 168.711 en el Mediterráneo Oriental, 738.427 en Asia Sudoriental y 191.598 en el Pacífico Occidental.
La situación en España a finales de 2020 En el caso de nuestro país, el IHME contempla tres escenarios posibles para el avance de la pandemia de cara a finales de año. La situación más probable que se pueda dar en España es que las muertes se sitúen en 69.445 muertes , lo que supondría un aumento de más del doble de aquí a diciembre. Este escenario implicaría las medidas de prevención actuales: el uso obligatorio de mascarillas y el respeto de las distancias de seguridad.
El peor de los casos expuesto en el informe es de 180.904 muertos al finalizar el 2020, un escenario que mantendría el uso obligatorio de mascarillas actuales, pero que relajaría las medidas en cuanto a la distancia de seguridad. Y en el mejor de los casos , con unas medidas muy estrictas de seguridad, se alcanzarían los 66.508 muertos .
En cuanto a las muertes por 100.000 habitantes, el estudio releva que España estaría en 144,5 en el mejor de los escenarios, 393,1 en el peor y 150,9 en el más probable. "En el escenario más probable del IHME, las naciones con el total de muertes per cápita más alto serían las Islas Vírgenes estadounidenses, los Países Bajos y España", indica el IHME.
La situación en el mundo a finales de año Estados Unidos sigue siendo, a día de hoy, el país del mundo más afectado por la pandemia de. Actualmente sus cifras son de 6,27 millones de casos detectados y 188.941 muertos según los datos de la Universidad Johns Hopkins. El estudio del IHME sitúa al gigante estadounidense con 410.451 muertos a final de año en el escenario más probable, con una incidencia de 125,1 muertes cada 100.000 habitantes.
Cara a finales de año, este estudio indica que el país más afectado por la COVID-19 será la India , que ahora es el segundo más golpeado. Su escenario más probable se sitúa con 659.537 muertes a final de año , en el peor de los casos rozando el millón con 916.688 y 484.981 en el mejor de los casos. Actualmente este país contabiliza 4,2 millones de casos y 71.642 víctimas mortales. Brasil es el tercero con con 4,13 millones de contagiados y 126.650 muertos.
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