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El efecto Hillary o cómo no fiarse de las encuestas Hillary Clinton la noche de su derrota frente a Trump en las presidenciales de 2016. Reuters
Las encuestas dan 7'2 puntos de ventaja a Biden, frente a la ventaja de 2'8 puntos con la que contaba Clinton a estas alturas en 2016 La clave sigue residiendo en los estados indecisos y no en el voto popular, que es lo que miden los sondeos Biden produce menos recelo entre los votantes moderados que Clinton, pero Trump no es el que era hace cuatro años Joe Biden está por delante de Donald Trump en los sondeos desde hace tiempo. Los resultados ofrecidos por RealClearPolitics el pasado jueves muestran que el 49’6 % votaría por el candidato demócrata y un 42’4% se inclinaría por el republicano. Pero aunque las encuestas resultan estupendas para conocer la popularidad de los candidatos, sus resultados no son determinantes para saber quién ganará las elecciones. Y si no, que se lo digan a Hillary Clinton cuando en 2016 lideraba las comicios .
No obstante, en estos momentos la ventaja del candidato demócrata es más del doble de la que tenía su predecesora Clinton. De hecho, los datos del 3 de septiembre de 2016 de la misma empresa de sondeos otorgaban 2’8 puntos de ventaja a Hillary sobre Trump mientras que el mismo día cuatro años después, los resultados dan a Biden 7’2 puntos porcentuales sobre actual mandatario . Una superioridad que debería dar cierta tranquilidad a los demócratas si no fuera porque las encuestas no son infalibles, como la historia nos recuerda, y los cuentos de hadas no siempre tienen un final feliz.
Inversión en publicidad por si fallan las encuestas Hillary Clinton nunca reconoció haber pecado en esos momentos de exceso de confianza , pero cuatro años después los datos dicen que si hubiera hecho las cosas de otra manera, empezando por no haberse dejado llevar por lo que decían las encuestas, quizá los resultados hubieran sido otros. El Partido Demócrata parece haber aprendido la lección y, en lugar de enfocar la estrategia electoral como una campaña a nivel nacional, la está abordando estado por estado , siendo consciente de que la clave está en el valor del voto que otorgan los colegios electorales y no en el total del voto popular, que es el que miden los sondeos, así como en el voto de los estados indecisos .
Esa es la razón por la que, a dos meses de las elecciones, ambos candidatos han decidido no dar nada por sentado y están invirtiendo altas sumas de dinero en anuncios para ser emitidos en dichos estados clave. Un ejemplo, según datos de Bloomberg, es la estrategia de Biden reservando 5’5 millones de dólares para invertir en Texas y 2’8 en Georgia, a pesar de que tradicionalmente son de voto republicano y la tarea de reversión del voto no parece fácil.
En este sentido el caso más paradigmático es del estado de Minnesota , donde ambos candidatos están haciendo una apuesta importante. Biden ha preparado un montante de 3 millones de dólares , a pesar de que se trata de un feudo demócrata desde 1976 y de que Hillary no gastó ni un céntimo allí en su campaña . Y Trump , siguiendo la misma táctica pero a lo grande, ha decidido invertir la nada despreciable cantidad de 12’9 millones de dólares ¿La razón? Los 10 votos de los colegios electorales que este estado proporciona en el largo camino hacia la consecución de los 270 necesarios para ganar las elecciones
¿Qué dicen los anuncios? Tanto dinero invertido no va a ningún sitio si no es para lanzar un mensaje, algo que saben perfectamente los expertos en campañas electorales. Por ello a través de los anuncios Trump se muestra como el referente de la ley, el orden y la seguridad en un momento en que los disturbios raciales y las revueltas, algunas de carácter violento, se están produciendo en distintos puntos geográficos del país. Este es otro de los motivos que han llevado al actual mandatario a realizar semejante inversión en espacios publicitarios que se están emitiendo en Minneapolis (Minnesota), estado en el que tuvo lugar la muerte de George Floyd a manos de un policía blanco, el pasado mes de mayo, y que dieron lugar a los graves rebrotes raciales.
Por su parte Biden , aprovechando los puntos débiles del republicano, denuncia la mala gestión de la pandemia , que ya se ha cobrado casi 190.000 muertos en Estados Unidos, el empeoramiento de la situación económica del país y la falta de liderazgo del actual presidente para salir de esta situación. “La verdad es que todavía estamos en la peor recesión desde la Gran Depresión. Y la culpa es la incapacidad de Donald Trump para abordar la pandemia de Covid-19”, dice textualmente uno de los anuncios. En contraposición el demócrata ofrece su extensa trayectoria política (fue ocho años vicepresidente con Obama y 36 años senador por Delaware) y una imagen de estabilidad en un país que pide normalidad tras cuatro años convulsos.
Biden no es Hillary Pero aunque el demócrata no deslumbra como Barak Obama, tiene falta de carisma y ciertas dificultades para afrontar con máximas garantías los debates, tampoco es Hillary Clinton . A diferencia de la anterior candidata del partido a la presidencia del país en 2016, Joe Biden es visto como un ciudadano de a pie . Hijo de un vendedor de coches y el mayor de una familia de cuatro hermanos, ha tenido un estilo de vida más normal que le conecta a una amplia base electoral.
Siendo senador por Delaware pasó muchos años haciendo el recorrido diario hacia Washington en tren (cuatro horas entre ida y vuelta), lo que le aleja del alto tren de vida que siempre ha llevado Hillary. Y su amplia trayectoria política le apuntala como un candidato seguro y moderado , capaz de hacer alianzas en lugar de aumentar la división, lo que rebaja el riesgo de que se vote a Trump para evitar que gobierne Hillary, como ocurrió hace cuatro años entre algunos votantes.
Además, las tragedias que Biden ha sufrido en su vida (la muerte de su primera esposa y su hija de un año en un accidente de coche, así como la de otro de sus hijos a los 45 años ) le hacen ser percibido como una persona más cercana y empática con los problemas de la ciudadanía que su predecesora, que ha sido criticada en algunas ocasiones como parte de una élite inaccesible.
Lo cierto es que Biden no es Hillary pero Trump tampoco es el que era antes . El actual presidente es cuatro años más experto en la política que cuando fue elegido y a ello se suman los buenos resultados económicos que ostentaba el país antes de la llegada de la pandemia. Para no dejar ningún cabo suelto, el actual mandatario acaba de gastar 400.000 dólares más que Biden en anuncios en Facebook y un total de 8’96 millones de dólares, sólo entre el 28 de agosto y el 3 de septiembre . Todo un despliegue económico que, a falta de dos meses de campaña, no ha hecho más que empezar.